Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again even though today’s economic data revealed much stronger than expected results. The cause is another round of stock selling that has pushed the Dow below 10,000 again. When this happened last week, stocks rebounded intra-day, allowing the Dow to close above that benchmark. Whether or not that will be the case today remains to be seen, but it certainly is stock volatility that has fueled this morning’s bond buying.
The Dow is currently down 181 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 43 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately by only .125 of a discount point when compared to yesterday’s morning rates.
May's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was posted this morning. The Conference Board announced a reading of 63.3, greatly exceeding forecasts of a 57.9 reading. This was the highest reading in over two years and indicates that consumers are much more optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it means that consumers are more willing to make large purchases. However, the fear in the stock markets has erased any negative impact this data would have on today’s trading.
There are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow morning. The more important of the two is April’s Durable Goods Orders data. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket products. It is currently expected to show an increase in new orders of approximately 1.4%. If this report shows a larger than expected rise, we should see mortgage rates move higher because it indicates manufacturing growth. If it shows a smaller than expected increase, we could see rates improve tomorrow.
April’s New Home Sales data will be released late tomorrow morning. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. However, it is actually the least important release of the week and probably will not have much of an impact on mortgage pricing. It is expected to show an increase in sales.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...